This time of year you will undoubtedly catch many prognosticators trying to forecast business for the year ahead. These will range from dismal to, surprisingly, on a small upswing.

Being the bold and risky editors that we are, we’re going to call the 2009 retail forecast a toss up. A roller coaster. Up and down. Because, frankly, who really knows anymore.

According to the Kiplinger Letter, retail sales growth will slow to just over 1 percent in 2009 after gaining 2 percent this year. Consumers will continue to hold onto their money because of still-higher-than-usual fuel costs, worries about home values and insecurity about income.

Options for manufacturers and retailers to absorb price increases are dwindling. They will try more aggressively to pass along high costs for shipping and commodities. Kiplinger predicts that one-stop discount destinations, such as Wal-Mart and Target, will continue to draw more shoppers as consumers seek value and keep a watch on how many miles they drive.

Sales via the Web are predicted to increase, climbing 15 percent in 2008 to around $200 billion and capturing 10 percent of retail sales, up from about 9 percent in 2007.